Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong about the World - and Why Things Are Better than You Think by Hans Rosling
Version: 2018
Notes:
Introduction
How can you make good guesses if your world view is upside down?
We focus too much on Drama and have instincts of fast conclusions
Be curious, impossible is possible
Gap instinct
Don’t rely on statistics 100%
We focus too much on negative and not on positive improvements
Beware comparisons of averages/extremes, they block big picture
There are 4 levels of income, in level 4 all others seem poor
Negative instinct
ultimate goal is to get to do what we want
must not lose hope because of misconceptions/negative thinking
Most people feel, not think: selective reporting are focused on negative/extreme
Things can be bad, but they can be better
Bad news is always reported, Good is almost never reported
Straight line instinct
Journalist pick dramatic exceptional people in reports (exceptions)
Everything that helps is good in right dosage (stress, food, water, etc.)
Generally better income = better health and vice versa
Lines do not always continue straight, trends can follow different curves
Fear instinct
We tend to imagine the worst case scenario, over exaggerate sometimes
When we are in fear, we don’t think clearly
The world has never been safer, but reporting has increased so much making it seem the opposite because of large awareness on bad events
Chemicals can kill people only because of the fear/stress/worry, not because of chemical itself
Plane travel has become safer than ever, terrorism is unlikely in level 4
Fear vs reality: calculate risks, frightening things get attention easily
Size instinct:
World cannot be understood without numbers, but it cannot be understood with numbers alone
When resources are scarce, you must learn to use them well (time, energy, stress, money, etc.)
80/20 rule: look for small things that produce most of the results
Humans proportioning ability is inaccurate, to avoid this, compare and divide
Generalization instinct
Just because it happens one way here doesn’t mean its like that in other countries
west might no longer dominate in a few years
you are not “normal”, other people are not “idiots”
Money can get stolen and loses value due to inflation
Question your generalizations, there are differences between groups, look fro similarities too
Vivid examples do not demonstrate big picture
Just because it works in one situation doesn’t mean it does in all
Density instinct
Just because it is one way, or has always been like that doesn’t mean that it its destiny or will always be that way
Asia and Africa are growing fast, business opportunities, most likely will catch up to west
prepare to update knowledge, have a vision
cultures can change, they are not static
Slow changing is still change, track gradual improvements
Single perspective instinct
Simple ideas are attractive, but complexity is sometimes necessary
Professionals are not good at everything, we are not experts of everything
Numbers are no single solution, nor is medicine, there is not single solution
Single perspective can limit your imagination, test your ideas
Look for different perspectives, be aware of simple ideas/solutions
Blame instinct
It is easy to find someone to blame, when we do, we stop thinking
Business, Journalist and refugees are doing good intentions, they are not to blame
Urgency instinct
Know when something feels urgent, most of the time it is not
take small steps, less dramatic, but more effective
If wanting to improve something, measure it
Beware of future predictions, good or bad, aren’t always correct
If someone threatens you with a machete, stay calm and look at them in the eye and ask calmly what the problem is
Stay up to date on the info, it sparks curiosity and make better decisions
Don’t rely on news for understanding the world
pay more attention to differences within
Citation:
Rosling, Hans, et al. Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong about the World - and Why Things Are Better than You Think. Flatiron Books, 2018.